Kitty is Back: Why Now?
It's no secret Elementary is struggling this season. It spent its first three and a half seasons in a fairly solid Thursday at 10pm slot, and while it suffered a steady decrease over those four seasons, it was given a lifeline when CBS renewed it for season 5 and shunted it to the Sunday at 10pm slot. A slim lifeline given that's one of the worst timeslots a show could find itself in, but the back third of season 4 tested well in that position. However, it's all gone wrong for Elementary since then, but now the news is that one of the show's recurring characters, Kitty Winter, is returning to the series. But before we take a look at Kitty herself, let's go over the yearly ratings and establish where Elementary is right now.
Yearly Ratings
Going by season averages of final overnight ratings, these were the season-by-season ratings for Elementary:
SEASON DEMO SHARE VIEWERS (millions)
1 2.3 10.85
2 1.7 8.79
3 1.3 7.42
4 1.0 5.74
5* 0.7 5.35
*Season 5 is still airing
[NOTE: These figures and the following percentages are slightly distorted because I have rounded TVSeriesFinale ratings up from two decimal points to one in the demo share, and from three decimal points to two in the viewers.]
Clearly, the 10pm slot lost its shine. Admittedly, a 2.3 in the (more important) demo share didn't mean anything then like it does now (since nowadays you rarely see it in a debuting broadcast network show), but it's still a very good figure for a show to conclude its first season with. Obviously, an average of nearly 11m viewers alongside that meant Elementary was surely set for a renewal to season 2.
Season 2 lost 26.1% in average seasonal demo share, and 19% of its viewers. That's a heavy loss, but again a 1.7 is still a stable figure for a 10pm slot, so CBS renewed it for season 3.
Season 3's percentage decrease in both areas was less, but not by much: 23.5% in the demo share, and 15.59% of its viewers. But it was in its third season, so despite (probably) being a little below the average demo share in 2014, it was a lock for renewal.
Season 4 fell even more: 23.08% in the demo share and 22.65% of its viewers. Hence, CBS decided that, while a 1.0 was well under the 1.3 average across all broadcast network shows last year, Elementary had done well enough to buy itself a fifth season renewal on the basis that it moved to practically the worst timeslot of the week: Sunday at 10pm. Either that, or CBS simply wanted to free up the Thursday at 10pm slot for Pure Genius (which is ironically on the verge of cancellation itself after just 2 episodes) and didn't feel like putting another new show on at 10pm Sunday.
But for whatever reason, Elementary's season 5 demo share has dipped to an average of 0.7, which is emergency replacement level on broadcast network TV. For perspective, 23 of 29 shows that averaged below a 1.0 in the 2015/16 TV year were cancelled.
We can safely say Elementary is in its final year - which may be a factor we need to include in our analysis later on.
Series Arcs
Now that we've seen Elementary's performance, we need to look at its writing.
Throughout the series, each individual season has thrown someone from Sherlock's past into his present and made them an important part of that series.
In season 1, the believed-dead Irene Adler grew into Sherlock's ultimate enemy, Jamie Moriarty.
In season 2, Sherlock's brother Mycroft and old colleague Inspector Lestrade showed up with their own mysterious agendas.
In season 3, Sherlock returned to New York with his new protégée, Kitty Winter, and tried to train her to be a detective.
In season 4, Morland Holmes, Sherlock's father, came to New York with some serious baggage.
Season 5 is flipping the script a little, by bringing a former patient of Joan Watson's in as the main recurring character, Shinwell.
However, it has been reported that Kitty Winter is returning for "at least two episodes". So ...
Who is Kitty Winter?
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| Ophelia Lovibond as Kitty Winter in Elementary |
When Sherlock left New York to return to London at the end of season 2, the intervening six months saw him pick up something of a protégée, Kitty Winter, who returned with him to New York in time for the start of season 3. She was an angry, defensive woman haunted by her kidnap and rape by an unknown assailant, who possessed the brains, if not the temperament, for detective work. It was a big compliment from a man like Sherlock, and while Watson suffered something close to a work-life balance crisis, Sherlock taught Kitty as best he could the ways of a detective.
She wasn't slow to pick things up, but she wasn't as open as Watson had been in the beginning. Watson leaving Sherlock's side to join an insurance firm heralded the culmination of Kitty's arc: it transpired that Watson's new boss, Del Gruner, was in fact the man who had kidnapped and raped Kitty, and who had done the same to many others, with the additional ending that the other women were also promptly murdered.
Kitty went off the rails, kidnapping Gruner and threatening to kill him; in the end she decided to settle for burning his face off, before disappearing and never being heard from again.
Kitty appeared in episodes 1-12 of season 3.
Was Kitty Popular?
Personally, she wasn't popular with me. I abhorred her character and nearly gave up the show completely because of her: my feelings were that as a character she was just unacceptably dull, and the conclusion to her storyline was implausible and horrifically written.
But ask me was Kitty popular with the majority of the Elementary fanbase and my overarching feeling on this matter is that yes, Kitty was a very popular character. She is considered by many to be the best recurring character Elementary ever had, and her arc is also considered by many as one of the best the series ever produced.
Do ratings suggest otherwise?
After all, episodes 2-5 of season 3 brought consecutive series lows on overnight viewers, and the premiere wasn't miles away from a series low itself.
However, it's possible this simply depicts teething problems: after episode 5, the ratings began to stabilise in the above-7m-but-below-8m mark, and indeed episodes 9-11 were three of only four episodes to hit over 8m viewers in the 24-episode third season (and Kitty left in episode 12).
To see which theory is right, I calculated the average demo share and viewer figures for the first 12 episodes of season 3, in which Kitty appeared. These were them:
DEMO SHARE VIEWERS
1.3 7.35m
There is no difference in demo share between the first twelve episodes and the season as a whole, and barely any difference in viewer figures. (Again, please note these figures are slightly distorted because I have again rounded TVSeriesFinale ratings up from two decimal points to one in the demo share, and from three decimal points to two in the viewers.) So Kitty clearly didn't impact the season's ratings negatively in any way.
But whether that means she was popular is another question, and the answer is that her popularity simply cannot be measured by the conclusion that she simply didn't negatively impact the show's ratings (since she didn't actively affect the ratings positively either).
But among the core fanbase itself, yes, she was a popular character.
Season 5 Goes Back To Happier Times
But now we have to ask ourselves what sense does it make to bring back Kitty Winter at this stage in the show's life? Why, when Elementary has Lestrade, Mycroft, Morland or Moriarty (the latter of whom really ought to have topped the list of ex-recurring characters that needed to return), and is almost certainly in its final year, did Kitty win the lottery?
To boost ratings?
Unlikely.
Elementary's two most recent episodes have sunk to the series low 0.6 in the demo share, which is below emergency replacement level. To emphasise how abysmal that performance is, there is time still for CBS to intervene and slash the current full-season 22-episode order to 13. That is, in all probability, not going to happen, but it remains a distinct possibility. And with Elementary in this precarious a position, we can easily conclude Kitty's return isn't a ploy to boost ratings - and even if it is, it's definitely not going to work.
Is it for story purpose?
Again, this seems unlikely, although not as unlikely. Kitty served a story purpose in season 3: she was a fill-in for Watson while Watson, after two years of working alongside Sherlock, had her work-life crisis; and Kitty's traumatic backstory gave the writers a way to bring both storylines together halfway through the season. With that dramatic conclusion, and Kitty's vanishing act, she was - for all her popularity - now unnecessary to the show. The back third of the season saw Watson and Sherlock tentatively reunite, and by season 4 there was a new season-long plot in place: Morland Holmes, Sherlock's father, and his criminal empire's rivalry with that of the imprisoned Jamie Moriarty's.
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| Natalie Dormer as Irene Adler/Jamie Moriarty |
Which is why I'm at a loss to understand why it is Kitty who has returned and not Moriarty. Given that Morland took over Moriarty's criminal empire with the aim of destroying it at the end of season 4, from a story point of view it would seem more sensible to have Moriarty return than Kitty.
Kitty is to return for at least two episodes. Maybe her return does make sense: maybe they'll tie her in with Morland and his battle to destabilise Moriarty's empire from within. If the "at least" part suggests there's more to her return than a simple two-parter, it's the only storyline I see that would tie up all the loose ends Elementary won't otherwise get to tie up.
But if they don't, then I can't see Kitty's return being anything to do with story.
Popularity/Buzz
I think here we're getting much warmer.
Kitty was a well-liked character among the vast majority of Elementary fans, and a lot of them would like to see her return. Bringing her back - especially if it doesn't serve any larger arc - will be just that: fan service. Which isn't necessarily a deplorable decision, especially when the writers know they probably won't get another chance. It just makes you question whether they have any tricks up their sleeve, or whether this move simply is a publicity stunt.
Final thoughts
I personally don't wish to see Kitty return. If she's in it for two episodes only, I can stand to skip them. If she's returning as part of a wider storyline involving Moriarty and Morland, then I can stand to tune in and sit through Ophelia Lovibond's sullen-faced, cross-armed Kristen-Stewart-meets-Keanu-Reeves-esque delivery of the character.
However, back to impartiality, Kitty served a purpose in season 3. I've done the maths and found it easy to conclude that her return is most likely to be fan service than anything else. But it needs to be more than that. Bringing Kitty Winter back gives the writers a chance to write a better ending for the character, with the option of extending her character's influence into other areas of the show's mythology. And as far as I'm concerned, they have to do just that or they will waste their last chance to build on and properly and satisfyingly close out the entire series.
Sam
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