Is Michael Weatherly's New Show Bullying TV Or Not?
This year, Michael Weatherly (see right) departed his career-making role as Anthony DiNozzo on NCIS after thirteen years. CBS, keen to ride on his star status, promptly handed him the role of Dr. Jason Bull in their new show based around trial science, a concept loosely based on the previous occupation of talk-show host Dr. Phil McGraw.
My first love of the new season was set to be ABC's Conviction, but following the release of the trailer for Bull, I was hooked. Bull has now aired two episodes and is now taking a one-week break, so what I'm going to do today is look at its performance and analyse where I think the show is headed.
What is Bull?
Bull is a show devoted to how science can be utilised to influence juries and win trials. In it, Bull's company, Trial Analysis Corporation (or TAC for short), analyse the way that jurors will vote using a complex predictive algorithm. Although the specifics of the algorithm haven't been explained in-canon yet, it will no doubt include the extensive information which the team gathers on each juror: their habits, their web searches, their internet usage. Using that information, TAC then help decide the jury by selecting as many suitable candidates as possible, and create a mirror jury of their own to run mock trials that give them a deeper understanding of what emotions they need to manipulate or what actions they need to take in the real courtroom to win their trial.
The below is the full trailer CBS released to promote the show:
Bull is CBS's 2016 baby, but it might not have been without Michael Weatherly. A huge proportion of CBS's promotional efforts were centred around him. NCIS is CBS's golden show, and having one of its stars sign on in the starring role became Bull's USP, even more so than its premise, and this was naturally milked by the network.
On top of this, CBS then placed Bull in the 9pm Tuesday slot, directly after NCIS. I've mentioned before how this was a genius move, because fans of DiNozzo will get to see his actor in a new show immediately after NCIS finishes. Before I analyse why the DiNozzo factor will eventually wear off, I'll show why the DiNozzo factor was important to Bull's rip-roaring start.
Premiere: "The Necklace"
Overnights
Bull's series premiere aired Tuesday 20th September, sandwiched between NCIS and NCIS: New Orleans. For context, we need to look at NCIS's final ratings first.
Its season 14 premiere garnered 15.99 million viewers and a demographic share of 2.2. Those ratings are exceptional on any network and are what make NCIS the biggest show in America. Not a single series premiere episode of any new primetime scripted show which has debuted since the 2010-11 fall season (disregarding NCIS: New Orleans as it is a spin-off) has ever passed the 15m mark on overnights.
Bull's overnights?
15.56 million viewers and a 2.2 demographic share.
But what does that actually mean? A few things.
- It means Bull's final overnight ratings were practically identical to NCIS's.
- Almost the entirety of Bull's lead-in audience stayed rooted at their TVs to catch the Bull premiere.
- It has become the first completely new primetime scripted show to surpass 15m viewers on its debut this side of 2010.
- It means that CBS played a blinder by sticking Bull behind NCIS.
The narrowness in viewer figures (and the matching demographic shares) means we can fairly assume that Bull received such incredible overnight ratings because of Weatherly's allure to NCIS fans. Evidence suggests Bull alone would not have achieved those heights. It has a number of well-known small-screen actors in co-lead roles, but none could attract the audience of the largest broadcast network fanbase in the US.
Bull's actual fanbase is currently being distorted by the curiosity of NCIS fans, which is my point. Those huge ratings, Bull breaking that 15m barrier - that is the DiNozzo factor.
Live +3
With the live +3 ratings (the viewer figures and demographic share total after 3 days of delayed DVR viewing, which is often more important to networks than overnights), Bull extends its lead even further. It hops slightly ahead of NCIS in ratings, gaining just under 4m viewers to hit 19.42m compared to NCIS's 19.22m (which puts it top of the list), and, like NCIS, rises seven-tenths of a point to 2.9 in demographic share (to sit third, behind NBC's This Is Us and non-primetime non-scripted hit The Voice).
Considering that last season's average demographic share across the Big 4 networks was a 1.3, Bull is, after three days of delayed viewing, over twice that.
DiNozzo.
Factor.
Episode 2: "The Woman In 8D"
Overnights
And then order was restored. Sort of.
One episode is often plenty for people to decide whether they are interested in a show enough to watch it for more reasons than just it stars one of their favourite actors, and the difference between Bull's premiere and its second episode was palpable.
It dropped three-tenths of a point in demographic share to 1.9 and lost 2m viewers, pulling in an overnight rating of 13.61m viewers. (For comparison, NCIS's overnights almost equalled its season 14 premiere, with a 2.1 demographic share [a .1 drop] and 15.52m viewers [a 0.4m drop].)
The DiNozzo factor has, by this point, all but evaporated, and while I'm sure some fence-sitters still remain, the 2m drop in overnight viewing figures is (while also a clear demonstration of a typical premiere-to-second-episode downtick) telling, with regards to the NCIS fans who tuned in the week before simply to see Weatherly again.
However, this is not an instant marker of an inevitable decline.
Shows naturally decline as seasons progress. Bull generated enough interest from NCIS fans to hold its own against NCIS in premiere week. But the NCIS fans who bugged out afterwards have not yet been - and will not in the future be - so vast in their numbers that Bull will struggle. Even at this base level before the more important +3 ratings, Bull is CBS's second-highest rated show so far this season.
And amid all the analysis of NCIS fans' response to Bull, it's easy to forget there will be plenty of viewers who watch Bull on its own merits - and plenty, like me, who watch it both because it is an interesting concept and because of Weatherly's performance. (I'm also here for the lawyer Benny, played by Freddy Rodriguez, lately of The Night Shift on NBC - see right.)
I predicted a 2m overnight viewer downtick from premiere to second episode - and for once my guess was accurate.
But how much does the +3's affect Bull?
Live +3
Well, unfortunately I cannot find the +3 data for "The Woman In 8D", but I think, if I guesstimate the proportion in ratings decrease, it would be fairly accurate to presume Bull got roughly 3m viewers and five tenths of a point in the demographic share. Those figures would bring it up to roughly 16.5m viewers and 2.4 in the demographic share, which is stonking figures.
Tuesday Competition
Unfortunately for Bull, it has some major competition in NBC's This Is Us. Although NBC typically get less viewers, This Is Us's demographic share is vastly higher than Bull's. It's premiere got a 2.8, way above Bull's 2.2. Three days of delayed viewing saw that rise to 4.2, where Bull's premiere's +3's rose to just 2.9. (I say "just", as if a 2.9 isn't excellent, but in comparison it got trashed.)
And that's when you take into account This Is Us is currently airing at 10pm Tuesdays. As of next week, This Is Us will air at 9pm, directly alongside Bull.
Sad emoji.
The Break: Will Bull's Week Off Work - And Where Will It Go?
Bull's week off gives the dust a chance to settle. I'm hoping the DiNozzo factor will have well and truly vacated the premises by the time it returns next week. But we're only two episodes in. And, for however much Bull's week off gives viewers a chance to stop fence-sitting and pick a side (to take it or leave it), there's every chance that the show will eventually fail to stand on its own two feet because of Weatherly's involvement. There is every chance that, eventually, the show won't be able to sustain itself without a working DiNozzo factor - which as we can see, is slowly subsiding. That itself doesn't worry me too much: I've said before Bull's ratings won't lower so drastically this season that it will struggle - but that was in relation to the exodus of NCIS fans.
What might have a bigger impact is This Is Us going head-to-head with Bull at 9pm. This Is Us already pulls in just under 3.0 in demo share ON OVERNIGHTS. AT TEN O'CLOCK AT NIGHT. It, too, took a natural dip from premiere to second episode, but only from 2.8 in the premiere to 2.6. It was still seven tenths of a point ahead of Bull - before +3's, which will have widened the gap even further (at a guess it rose to something between 3.5-4.0). Even if the DiNozzo factor doesn't play into a ratings decrease any further (and I imagine at least for a short while it might), Bull could end up taking a massive hit simply because of This Is Us.
And that worries me.
Final thoughts
I don't get to end this analysis as happily as I wanted to. Though I've concluded the waning DiNozzo factor won't be costly to Bull's renewal chances, This Is Us may very well be. Of course, there is a long way to go. This Is Us has been picked up by NBC for a full season of 18 episodes, and CBS will no doubt soon pick up Bull for something like 20-24 episodes. Both shows have a long way to go before either network considers renewal, but for both so far it's looking very, very likely they'll be topping their pots come May next year.
And that is a slightly happier conclusion to end on.
Thank you for reading everyone, I will see you this Saturday 8th with the on-season's third week roundup!
Sam
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