An Early Look at Renewal and Cancellation Prospects

Did I Get My Renewal Predictions Wrong: An Early Review

The first four weeks of the new fall television season has passed, and while all the shows I'm reviewing are at varying stages of their new seasons, I think this would be an adequate time to check across the board and see whether or not my renewal predictions were right - and why have they changed, if so?

   (NOTE: Since I find overnight ratings easier to source I'll be quoting these. However, the +3's are more important for networks).

Brooklyn Nine-Nine (after 4 episodes) - I said Renewed; I still do

Brooklyn Nine-Nine has benefited from returning to its original 8pm Tuesday slot. It is surrounded by some of the biggest primetime shows, but still has pulled in a viewer average of 2.312m and a 1.0 demo share across. That viewer average was slightly lowered by a downtick for the fourth (New Girl crossover) episode, but the early stages have seen stable and decent ratings. It's one of only three sitcoms remaining on FOX, is two seasons behind New Girl and is currently performing better. Taking a risk on a new sitcom in an 8pm Tuesday slot would be a huge risk, so I remain fairly confident that Andy Samberg's charming cop comedy show will be back for a season 5 next year.

Bull (after 3 episodes) - I said Renewed; I still do

I worry unnecessarily about Bull - probably because it's my favourite new show this year. The attraction of its star lead - NCIS's Michael Weatherly - has waned, but in the second and third episodes it has hung around the 13m and 1.75 mark. Taking into account its massive 15.56m and 2.2 premiere, Bull's average overnight ratings so far are 14.058m viewers and a 1.9 in the demo share. That's huge, and, despite my reservations based on emotion, there's nothing to suggest it's going anywhere soon.

   I renewed Bull to season 4 originally. We'll see in three years if it gets that far, I suppose, but for now all the evidence points to a season two at the very least.

Code Black (after 3 episodes) - I said Cancelled; I still do

Troubled times lay ahead for Code Black. Its 18-episode first season did well enough in the 10pm Wednesday slot that it was renewed for a season 2, but it hasn't done well this season. Its ratings have fallen over a million in viewers to an average of just over 6m, and its demo share has dropped two tenths of a point to a 1.1, plus it is struggling against its rivals in Designated Survivor and Chicago PD. The cast changes have had an instant negative impact, and if Code Black continues to drop it will be a real contender for cancellation - which is what I think will occur.

Conviction (after 2 episodes) - I said Renewed; now I say Cancelled

My hopes were that ABC's Conviction would come second in the 10pm Monday slot behind CBS's Scorpion, and beat out FOX's Taken and NBC's Timeless, but things haven't quite gone to plan. Although Taken is yet to air, Conviction's big-name cast hasn't done anything to pull viewers from Scorpion or Timeless. After 2 episodes, it has secured an average of 4.702m viewers and a 0.86 in demo share. Meanwhile, Timeless has averaged 6.899m and a 1.62, and Scorpion has averaged 7.88 and a 1.46. Conviction looks way off-track with disastrous figures, and "cancellation-worthy" is already a fitting adjective. I can't see a way back for it, and even if ABC gives it a second chance I can't see how it would benefit even from a timeslot shift - which is a move I doubt they'd consider anyway given current standings. I'm disappointed, but I've had to change my mind and predict cancellation.

Elementary (after 1 episode) - I said Renewed; now I say Cancelled

It's not like I held out high hopes for Elementary (I originally believed it would do well enough to secure a sixth and final season next year), but after just one episode (and despite the fact it may be rash to sound the alarm after just one episode), Elementary is in dire straits. Its viewer ratings have bumped up compared to the back end of season 4, but its premiere demo share (0.8) is perilously close to replacement level, and given premieres tend to be the high point of most seasons I don't see this largely improving, especially since Elementary is in a horrific 10pm Sunday slot.

   It's simply a victim of circumstance - on a better night (like a Tuesday or Friday) it could be doing as well as some of those days' patrons - but there is simply no room there for it and other weekday slots have been (fairly) offered to newer shows. A shame, but Elementary is probably going to bow out in May.

   Cancelled.

Hawaii Five-0 (after 4 episodes) - I said Renewed; I still do

Hawaii Five-0 has been rejuvenated in its 9pm Friday slot. Partly helped by MacGyver at 8pm, its average ratings so far are 9.684m and a 1.30. Comparatively, season 6 concluded with 8.712m and a 1.14. It's in a good position now, and airs on a Friday that CBS dominates, so if it continues at this rate it won't struggle to reach season 8.

Lucifer (after 3 episodes) - I said Cancelled; I still do

But I don't say that with ease. The ratings for Lucifer have been stable, with an average of 3.9m and a 1.13. The problem is anything with a demo share under 1.3 is a statistically below-average show, it's on FOX (who are notoriously temperamental) and shows involving the Devil as a character tend not to be around for very long (which is ironic, given the lead's etymology).

   I'm not seeing anything to suggest renewal, although I wouldn't be overly shocked if it was. Cancelled.

MacGyver (after 4 episodes) - I said Renewed; I still do

This one's a little trickier. It's not right to suggest MacGyver's had a terrible start, but certainly some harm has been done to its prospects simply because it isn't a reboot people have warmed to. So far it has averaged 8.890m and a 1.30, although the demo share will increase to something around about 1.6-1.7 when accounting for the conversion of Friday ratings. However, those ratings started at 10.896m and a 1.7 - so it's had quite a big drop. It seems to be levelling out now, and if it continues to hover around the 1.1-1.3 mark it will get the benefit of the doubt for season 2.

NCIS: Los Angeles (after 3 episodes) - I said Cancelled; now I say Renewed

NCIS LA was supposed to flop in the 8pm Sunday slot, but oh how ironic it is that the "death slot" has galvanised it instead. In its fifth season (the last before it was moved from its original 9pm Tuesday slot, after the mothership NCIS, to 10pm Monday), it averaged 2.44 and 14.84m. Season 6 saw that drop to 1.6 and 9.28m. It dropped further in season 7, to 1.32 and 8.632m. But the move to 8pm Sunday has rejuvenated ratings: even with delays for overrunning sports coverage, the first 3 episodes of season 8 have averaged a 1.52 and 10.685m. Perhaps part of the reason it survived to get this opportunity was because CBS were wary of pulling the plug on it for fear of reprisals for the other shows in the franchise, but NCIS LA is so far repaying CBS's faith - and that will no doubt lead to an easy decision for CBS come May next year.

   I reckoned on cancellation, but the surprising boost has it well-placed for renewal for season 9.

Quantico (after 2 episodes) - I said Cancelled; I still do

I've always maintained that Quantico felt like a very one-season show, and in spite of the quality of season two's writing so far I still maintain that. Perhaps by May ABC will consider the possibility Quantico might have outstayed its welcome too, because its ratings are slipping.

   A 1.24 demo share and 4.344m in average ratings for season 1 represented a decent return for ABC for 10pm Sunday. But, at just under the 1.3, it was a statistically average show. Two episodes into Quantico's second season and the magic is fading. It has dropped to 3.6m viewers and a 0.97 demo share so far, and I don't see it picking up as the season continues considering how impossible it would be for new viewers to dip in halfway through and understand the storyline.

   A highly probable bet for cancellation.

Scorpion (after 3 episodes) - I said Renewed; I still do

Scorpion's move from 9pm to 10pm Monday has caused a sizeable but not huge decrease in ratings. Season 2 averaged 9.638m and a 1.77; the first three episodes of season 3 have struck a 7.880m and a 1.46. Considering its new position, a drop of that level was expected and Scorpion is still holding as the best of the current three 10pm Monday shows in viewers (although Timeless is besting it by a few tenths of a point in the more important demo share).

   It's doing well, and there's no reason if the ratings continue to hold around this 7-8m level that it will be gone, especially when you consider the Third Season Rule (which states that since shows are typically ripe for big-money syndication deals when they hit the 88-100-episode mark that arrives in season 4, shows in their third season are much more likely to secure renewals even if ratings are a bit iffy).

Westworld (after 2 episodes) - I said Renewed; I still do

I'm a little less clear on what constitutes a hit show on a cable network like HBO than I am on the big broadcast networks, but I do know that Westworld's premiere overnights nearly equalled Game of Thrones'. Its averages across the first two episodes of its ten-episode debut season are 1.730m viewers and a 0.72 demo share, which seems to be in a top bracket. So I think Westworld is a lock for a second season.

Final thoughts

I think I've come out of the early stages fairly well on predictions. I've only changed my mind on three shows (two I now reckon will be cancelled and one will be granted a surprising renewal), which means I'm at least getting something right on how the shows will and have performed. Of course, I still could be completely wrong and second guessing a ruthless business like TV is a difficult thing to do. Regardless, I feel fairly confident we'll see a lot of these shows again next year.

Thanks for reading everyone and I'll see you next time!

Sam