OK, so as much as I don't like it - Oh who am I kidding I love it - it's time to predict which shows on this roundup will make it to another season and which shows won't. Last season I made predictions on 17 shows, with a very rudimentary knowledge of how the US TV system works and heart more than head. Of those 17 predictions I only got 8 correct (although admittedly there were some crazy 11th-hour renewal decisions even the seasoned predictors didn't see coming which brought down my percentage). Still, a 47% correct prediction percentage is shit. I'm hoping that this year I can at least get three-quarters of my predictions correct.
Deception and Reverie are my two new midseason shows - therefore for these two I'm flying blind: I don't have a day or timeslot to bolster my thoughts. While I also lack that information for Quantico, it's an established show that got an 11th-hour renewal last season, and I don't see that happening again.
Out of 12 shows next year, I've predicted 10 renewals and 3 cancellations. So let's see which shows get which prediction.
Black Mirror (returning for season 4 - RENEWED)
Black Mirror comes first on this list alphabetically, but poses the most unique release method of all these shows: as it's a Netflix show, all 6 episodes of season 4 will be released at once, presumably sometime in October. Whether it's a success or not I won't be able to gauge because there'll be no ratings (Netflix doesn't share them), so I'll be flying blind. However, I think the shift to Netflix will have boosted Black Mirror's ratings incalculably, since it's now available globally on a hugely popular streaming site. And it has sufficient buzz to warrant a huge viewership, and so I've no doubt that it will be back for season 5.Brooklyn Nine-Nine (returning for season 5 - RENEWED)
Tuesdays at 9.30pm (FOX)
Brooklyn Nine-Nine has been moved here and there throughout its current four-season run: at some point it's aired in every half-hour spot between 8 and 10pm on Tuesdays, and Sundays at 8.30 for part of season 3. (Sunday at 10.30pm once, but that's post-Superbowl so it doesn't count.)
I'm definitely less confident of this prediction, but I think it will be back for a season 6.
I'm very tempted to shoot for cancellation, for a number of reasons: the show is running out of steam, the constant slot-switching hasn't done it many favours, and with unremarkable ratings it's probably going to be on the bubble again come May. (I feel like if we're going to get a decision before then, it will be cancellation rather than renewal.)
But Brooklyn Nine-Nine showcases plenty of reasons it could still live on for season 6. Firstly, there's the fact that, with Bones already cancelled and New Girl wrapping up next season, Brooklyn Nine-Nine will be FOX's longest-running live-action show. It also has one of the most diverse casts on network TV, with backlash being something the show and the network will have to consider when handling any cancellation decision.
However, it's difficult to say where the network TV will go next season. In-house productions received renewal orders last season with dire ratings ahead of outside productions with better ratings, because the lower-rated in-house productions still garnered the networks more revenue. The move stunned people plenty more informed than me - and Brooklyn Nine-Nine is NOT an in-house production.
But for now, I'm going to shoot for renewal.
Bull (returning for season 2 - RENEWED)
Tuesdays at 8pm (CBS)
Last year I instantly predicted Bull to be renewed to season 4, which will land its episode count somewhere between 88-96 episodes and generate many syndication dollars for CBS. My confidence was due to the DiNozzo factor: Michael Weatherly, who played (Very) Special Agent Anthony DiNozzo in NCIS for 13 years, took the reins as lead character Dr. Jason Bull in this show about trial science, and CBS promptly slotted Bull behind the "mothership".
Last season Bull scored a 1.45 average in the demo share. That's only a little above the network-wide 1.3 average of the previous season, but most shows struggled to even hit average so Bull could be considered a hit for CBS. This season, it's clear that CBS has that 4-season mark on its mind with its decision to go against the tidal wave of online comments suggesting Bull be moved to Thursdays at 10pm to clog a leaking hole for the network. Which means my 3-season renewal prediction should be right on course.
I imagine Bull will land an average demo share for season 2 around about 1.25-1.4 (I'm giving myself a fair gap, I admit), and that will put it once again above most other network shows. And if I'm right and renewal comes, then we can be almost certain it will A) move timeslots but B) get a season 4 regardless of any negative impact of that timeslot switch.
Stay tuned - and expect to for three more seasons at least.
Deception (debut season - CANCELLED)
Midseason - day and timeslot unknown (ABC)
I may not know much about when Deception will air, but I've got a nasty feeling that its survival chances are rather slim. ABC concluded Castle two seasons ago, and since then it has been looking for two things: a stable show to fill the Monday at 10pm slot Castle left empty, and a stable cop procedural. Conviction was its first cop procedural attempt and it failed miserably in the Monday at 10pm slot. ABC has wised up and decided to put The Good Doctor in that slot instead of Deception (more on that later), but it still hasn't given up on finding a decent cop procedural. Enter: Deception.
The problem is I'm not sure the market for these kinds of shows is stable or easily attainable, especially in today's TV industry - and midseason isn't a great time to be looking for brilliant ratings. As much as I like the look of Deception, I'm not sure it's going to catch on, and will follow last season's flop Conviction out of the door.
The Good Doctor (debut season - RENEWED)
Mondays at 10pm (ABC)
The Good Doctor comes to ABC this season in the Monday at 10pm slot, to rival the returning Scorpion. It slots in where Conviction and Quantico failed last season, but I don't expect The Good Doctor to be quite as short-lived as the former. I think the success story of an autistic character surpassing all odds and becoming a qualified surgeon will make The Good Doctor a success story for ABC - or as much of a success story as shows can be these days (it won't hit This Is Us levels, for example).
As I've stated, it rivals Scorpion over on CBS, but while Scorpion won't lose any ground due to this, I don't think The Good Doctor will suffer for its strong competition. It will appeal to a strong core audience and fans of medical shows in general, and everything in my heart and head says this will get a second season.
Lucifer (returning for season 3 - RENEWED)
Mondays at 8pm (FOX)
FOX are taking a big risk by breaking up the highly successful Gotham/Lucifer pairing and introducing Lucifer as the lead-in to highly anticipated Marvel show The Gifted, but I expect that risk to pay off. Not only was Lucifer one of FOX's biggest rated shows last season (that doesn't say much admittedly), FOX is likely to have far more problems than Lucifer if things go downhill for the network this season. And yet, I don't expect them to at Lucifer.
Season 3 is going to include Smallville star Tom Wellings as a love interest for Chloe Decker, which may tempt some of that fandom to jump across - not to mention the fact that The Gifted's expected success could rub off onto Lucifer.
I expect a season 4, and if so then we can likely be certain of a season 5 by virtue of the 88-episode mark desirable for syndication (s3 will bring Lucifer to 53 or 57 episodes depending whether it has 22 or 26; a full 22-episode season 4 would take that figure to either 75 or 79, meaning even a short fifth season would push Lucifer across that 88-episode mark.)
I'm going to shoot for three renewals.
NCIS: Los Angeles (returning for season 9 - RENEWED)
Sundays at 9pm (CBS)
NCIS: Los Angeles's move to Sundays at 8pm for season 8 rejuvenated its ratings: it was one of just two CBS shows to register an increase in ratings compared to the previous season (the other being Hawaii Five-0). Naturally, that was met with a season 9 renewal announcement, albeit with the surprising caveat that NCIS LA would move to 9pm.
I'm a little dubious about this move - it certainly won't massively impact the improved ratings - but it seems a little odd to me for CBS to schedule a new show, Wisdom of the Crowd, before one of its best rated shows, rather than allowing NCIS LA to lead into it.
After Miguel Ferrer's death and his character Owen Granger's exit from the show, Nia Long will replace him as Deputy Director. If her character isn't well-received, there may be some consternation, but I don't envisage any problems significant enough to curtail NCIS LA's chances of hitting double figures. RENEWED.
The Orville (debut season - RENEWED)
Thursdays at 9pm (FOX)
My riskiest prediction rests at the door of Seth MacFarlane's sci-fi kind-of-spoof show The Orville. The show is unfortunately hard to define - the trailer focuses on proving that the quick wit MacFarlane is most known for can work in a more censored environment, rather than suggesting an overall plot. Every argument I make for The Orville directly because of Seth MacFarlane can be countered just as easily by those who dislike him: mainly that he's hilarious and he's a good actor. And if those things are disputable, what's not up for debate is whether he has an incredibly rounded knowledge of many TV industry skills: voice acting, animation, producing a show, writing, directing and live acting.
But The Orville is in a tricky timeslot. Thursdays at 9pm means it goes up against Thursday Night Football and Scandal's final season. The show could very well flop against such ratings juggernauts. It also may flop simply because not enough people will tune in because they don't like Seth MacFarlane. If it flops, likely both will be root causes - though we'll only have ratings to blame.
However, for as many people that dislike Seth MacFarlane, many more do and will like his live acting too. And if that wasn't enough of a lure, The Orville has one of the strongest casts of any new show: Scott Grimes (ER), Penny Johnson Jerald (Castle), Adrianne Palicki (Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.), Halston Sage and Victor Garber (Alias). If the cast isn't good enough, I think a lot of the people decrying The Orville's chances are underestimating Seth MacFarlane's fanbase. Or maybe I'm overestimating it.
I'm shooting for a tenuous renewal.
Quantico (returning for season 3 - CANCELLED)
Midseason - day and timeslot unknown (ABC)
Quantico received an 11th-hour renewal last season, and will therefore feature on this roundup in the upcoming 2017/18 season. On the bubble at the end of its first season, I'm not sure quite how Quantico scraped past season two. Actually, that's a lie: I have a fairly good idea. International sales and the stardom of Priyanka Chopra - a huge Bollywood actress - likely contributed significantly to the renewal decision. The projected income from those areas must have been enough for ABC to renew, because Quantico's second season pulled in a lowly 0.67 demo share average, below the 0.7 emergency replacement level line. It had a tough timeslot too - Sundays at 10pm - before switching to Mondays at 10pm following Conviction's run, where it barely improved on Conviction's ratings and didn't for very long.
Given the in-the-can ratings, Quantico was only renewed for 13 episodes - but that's more than enough for me: it's 13 more than I ever expected.
But I'm going to parrot last season's prediction, as I don't see it being so unimaginably lucky again come May next year.
Cancelled.
Reverie (debut season - CANCELLED)
Midseason - day and timeslot unknown (NBC)
My top pick of the new shows coming to this roundup (I haven't clarified that enough) is NBC's high-concept VR exploration Reverie. Starring a host of rather big TV names in Sarah Shahi, Dennis Haysbert, Kathryn Morris and Sendhil Ramamurthy, and a unique and intriguing central premise, you would think it would do well. I expect a lot of the Person of Interest fandom to get involved with this. But I don't know if that's going to be enough.
On top of that, without a date, day or timeslot to aid my thinking, I'm just going to imagine worst-case scenario. Although NBC is much more creatively adventurous than CBS who housed POI, I think Reverie might be too high-concept to last more than its ten-episode first season order. I really hope I'm wrong, but something will get cancelled this coming season and I'm going to shoot for this.
Scorpion (returning for season 4 - RENEWED)
Mondays at 10pm (CBS)
This, as far as I'm concerned, is a no-brainer. Scorpion took a significant hit in ratings when it moved to Mondays at 10pm for season 3, but it does very well there compared to most other 10pm dramas on any day of the week. I haven't checked to be certain, but it might be the best 10pm drama besides NCIS: New Orleans. It's an eclectic show with a solid fanbase, and it's going to continue to maintain that fanbase now that prayers have been answered and the main love interests have been partnered up. It's established, it's going to be syndication heaven for CBS and it will almost certainly perform better than any freshman drama could in the same slot. CBS will prefer to keep that for as long as it's viable than risk the expenditure on a new show only to see smaller returns. The Good Doctor and The Brave might trouble it, but not enough.
RENEWED.
The Walking Dead (returning for season 8 - RENEWED)
Sundays at 9pm (AMC)
The first half of season 8 will premiere 22nd October 2017, and will likely return to the Sundays at 9pm slot it has been in since season 2 began. And it will be renewed. This is a no-brainer: despite teething problems in season 7, The Walking Dead remains the biggest show on TV, last season pulling in a demo share average of 5.39! So I don't even need to say anything here. Renewed. Every day of the week, renewed.
Wentworth (returning for season 6 - RENEWED)
I admit, I don't know half as much about Aussie TV ratings as I do America (and even then I'm barely a novice at understanding how US TV works), but I feel as if Wentworth is just going to keep surging forward. Even with a dip in ratings following the lead character's death in season 4 and its move to a different channel, Wentworth drew the highest or second-highest cable ratings each night it aired for 11 of 12 episodes. It comes back around about April/May time, and I expect it to do very similarly in terms of ratings - and pull that season 7 renewal.
RENEWED.
Final thoughts
So those are my predictions for the survival chances of all the shows that will be reviewed here at TVRRoundup next season. I'm certain I'll get a good correct prediction percentage (better than last season's 47%), even with a few mistakes (because I'm sure to have overlooked something; either that or we'll all be taken by surprise again).
Now it's all on these TV shows to do their thing - so bring on our early season starter on September 10th: The Orville!
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